The Loudoun County housing market for 2019 started off strong! In fact, 2018 continued on and just got stronger. Many factors are driving our low inventory. On many listing appointment I’ve attended in the Loudoun County area, sellers ask me if Amazon, Inc. moving one of their headquarters to Washington, DC will allow them to price their home for much higher? The short answer is no. Market value pricing with the most recent similar comparable sales is the best approach. Appraisals are still trying to catch up. I am still seeing appraisal reports with “stable” markets. When they start to say “increasing”, then that will be the time.
Yes, Amazon’s move is directly affecting the Washington, DC and in Virginia, the Arlington and Alexandria markets. A report from WTOP in May, 2019 reported that the average rent prices in Washington, DC has jumped a whopping 31.3% in the last year Little supply, lots of demand. A Redfin report from August, 2019 stated that “In both Arlington and Alexandria, the number of homes for sale fell by about 50 percent year over year in July. Without enough supply to meet demand, more homes are selling above list price. Nearly half (46 percent) of Arlington homes sold in July went for more than list price, versus just 27 percent a year ago. In Alexandria 36 percent sold for more than list, up from 24 percent a year ago. Compare that with 32 percent in the D.C. metro and 24 percent nationwide”.
Loudoun County is feeling the “Amazon Effect” in what I refer to as an “Amazon Spiral”. The closest housing will be affected first, we are already seeing that. As people realize they can buy more house and land for less, without multiple offers, they will start looking a bit farther into the suburbs. Leesburg, Aldie, Ashburn and Chantilly seem to have had the most impact this year. The Dulles Area Association of Realtors reported that the median price of homes in Loudoun County increased 8.5% in July 2019 as compared to July 2018. County averages for days on market was 38 as compared to 54 in July 2018. An interesting tidbit, Round Hill, Virginia showed the most dramatic month over year gains of 19.3%, Ashburn at 15.8, Chantilly at 11.8%.
Oddly enough it was a flurry for the past 13 months straight and as we creep into the last quarter of 2019, things have slowed, considerably. Homes under $500k are still moving relatively quickly but the over $1M market has increased inventory and longer days on market, on average.
Oh my, is it a recession? The Dulles Area Association of Realtors is reporting that “only about 2% of economists think we’ll have a recession this year and based on a survey of more than 200 members of the National Association for Business Economics. Thirty-eight percent believe a recession will begin in 2020, while 25% say by 2021. Fourteen percent don’t expect a recession until after 2021.” https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/how-the-coming-recession-will-affect-the-housing-market/
The Federal reserve has hinted at another interest rate cut to the already great rates. The current rate for a 30 year conventional mortgage is 3.99% as reporting for today at Quickenloans.com. That’s amazing! Home buyers are finding that this is a huge help in making the homes they thought were out of reach in price, very affordable!
The bottom, line: It’s still a great time to sell and a great time to buy. The world will keep on spinning tomorrow. Your move is driven by where you want or need to go in life- job change, marriage, divorce, children and so forth. Don’t let your worry about tomorrow’s unknown affect today’s decisions.